Prediction of the Risk of Developing Severe Liver Disease
Clinical knowledge base written and curated by GastroAGI Team from primary medical literatureLast updated October 1, 2025
The CORE model, developed by researchers at Karolinska Institutet, predicts the 10-year risk of developing severe liver diseases, such as cirrhosis and liver cancer, using a simple blood test. It combines three routinely measured liver enzyme levels (AST, ALT, GGT) with age and sex. The model demonstrated 88% predictive accuracy, outperforming the widely used FIB-4 method, and is particularly suited for primary care settings. Validated in cohorts from Finland and the UK, it is accessible via a web-based calculator (www.core-model.com). Further testing among high-risk groups is needed, and efforts are underway to integrate it into electronic medical record systems for streamlined clinical use.
