Introduction: Accurate prediction of liver-related events (LREs) is essential for risk stratification and therapeutic decision-making in metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Although liver biopsy remains the reference standard for fibrosis assessment, vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) offers a non invasive alternative.
Introduction:
Accurate prediction of liver-related events (LREs) is essential for risk stratification and therapeutic decision-making in metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). Although liver biopsy remains the reference standard for fibrosis assessment, vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) offers a non invasive alternative. This multicenter study directly compared the prognostic performance of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) with histology for predicting liver-related outcomes.
Why was this study needed?
. Liver biopsy is invasive and unsuitable for repeated risk assessment.
. LSM is increasingly used in clinical practice, but direct comparisons with histology for long-term prognosis have been limited.
. Reliable non invasive surrogate endpoints are needed for both routine care and clinical trials.
. Determining whether LSM can replace biopsy for prognostic assessment could reduce dependence on invasive testing.
Results:
This international multicenter study evaluated over 3,500 patients with MASLD who underwent both liver biopsy and transient elastography. During long-term follow-up, liver stiffness measurement and histological fibrosis stage demonstrated virtually identical ability to predict liver-related events, including hepatic decompensation, liver transplantation, and liver-related death. Both modalities also showed comparable performance for predicting hepatocellular carcinoma and hepatic decompensation across multiple time points and sensitivity analyses. The findings remained consistent regardless of the statistical method used, indicating that liver stiffness provides prognostic information equivalent to liver biopsy for long-term clinical outcomes.
Clinical Impact:
These results support wider adoption of transient elastography as a first-line tool for prognostic assessment in MASLD. Given its non invasive nature, ease of repetition, and prognostic performance comparable to histology, LSM can facilitate longitudinal risk stratification, reduce the need for liver biopsy, and serve as a practical surrogate endpoint in clinical trials evaluating antifibrotic therapies.
Bottom Line:
Vibration-controlled transient elastography provides prognostic accuracy comparable to liver biopsy for predicting liver-related events in MASLD, supporting its use as a non invasive alternative for risk stratification and as a surrogate endpoint in future clinical trials.
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